Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 16:30
Prediction: Christopher O'Connell vs Dane Sweeny
Team pages: Christopher O'Connell · Dane Sweeny
Prediction summary
Winner
Christopher O'Connell
Dane Sweeny
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Christopher O'Connell
5-5 (W-L)
Dane Sweeny
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Christopher O'Connell
2–1
Dane Sweeny
(3 last)
- 04 Jan1-2 14-18L
- 11 Apr2-0 13-8W
- 28 Mar2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Christopher O'Connell 1571 · Dane Sweeny 1488
| Christopher O'Connell | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Christopher O'Connell (rating 1571 vs 1488).
- Christopher O'Connell is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Christopher O'Connell 2–1 Dane Sweeny (3).
Statistics
| Christopher O'Connell | Dane Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 86% (7) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.2-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.2 | 13.4-14.2 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 79.7% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 30% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.3
Over 22.5: 72% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 28% · 1.83
H2H · Christopher O'Connell 2 – 1 Dane Sweeny (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Christopher O'Connell 2–1 Dane Sweeny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/26 ATP Brisbane | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 11/04/23 Challenger Split | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/03/19 ITF M15 Mornington | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Christopher O'Connell
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Jaime Faria ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Joel Schwaerzler Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Otto Virtanen Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 19/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Jay Clarke Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Dane Sweeny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Tomas Barrios Vera Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 23-24 | W |
| 22/06 | Franco Roncadelli Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/06 | Toby Samuel Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Christopher O'Connell vs Dane Sweeny?
Our model gives 61% to Christopher O'Connell, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.