Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 22:30
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley
Team pages: Nicolas Mejia · Jacob Fearnley
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Jacob Fearnley
Estimated games
24.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
7-3 (W-L)
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1541 · Jacob Fearnley 1573
| Nicolas Mejia | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Jacob Fearnley | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-12 | 13.6-11.5 |
| Aces | 6 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.6
Over 21.5: 68% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 32% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/07 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob Fearnley?
Our model gives 65% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.