Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 22:30
Prediction: Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha
Team pages: Marcos Giron · Henrique Rocha
Prediction summary
Winner
Marcos Giron
Henrique Rocha
Estimated games
25.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marcos Giron
3-7 (W-L)
Henrique Rocha
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marcos Giron 1498 · Henrique Rocha 1455
| Marcos Giron | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marcos Giron (rating 1498 vs 1455).
Statistics
| Marcos Giron | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 40% (5) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.3 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.2-14.1 | 11-11.3 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +2.8
Over 22.5: 69% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 31% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcos Giron
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Andre Ilagan ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Aryan Shah ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexander Zverev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 02/07 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Corentin Moutet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 22/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
Henrique Rocha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Charles Broom Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha?
Our model gives 59% to Marcos Giron, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.