Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 19:30
Prediction: Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu
Team pages: Mackenzie McDonald · Yibing Wu
Prediction summary
Winner
Mackenzie McDonald
Yibing Wu
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mackenzie McDonald
4-6 (W-L)
Yibing Wu
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mackenzie McDonald 1516 · Yibing Wu 1466
| Mackenzie McDonald | Yibing Wu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mackenzie McDonald (rating 1516 vs 1466).
- Mackenzie McDonald dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 44.2% break avg.
Statistics
| Mackenzie McDonald | Yibing Wu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 57% (7) | 17% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-12.7 | 12.1-11.7 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 35.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mackenzie McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 25/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Yibing Wu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Christian Langmo Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/07 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 20/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 10/06 | Thijs Boogaard ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mackenzie McDonald vs Yibing Wu?
Our model gives 57% to Yibing Wu, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.