Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 19:30
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Bu Yunchaokete
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Bu Yunchaokete
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Bu Yunchaokete
Estimated games
25.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Bu Yunchaokete
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1421 · Bu Yunchaokete 1546
| Francesco Maestrelli | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bu Yunchaokete (rating 1421 vs 1546).
- Bu Yunchaokete dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 44.2% break avg.
- Bu Yunchaokete is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Francesco Maestrelli makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Bu Yunchaokete | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 0% (3) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-14.5 | 13.2-11.8 |
| Aces | 17.4 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 33% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.1
Over 21.5: 77% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 23% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Rio Noguchi French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/05 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Bu Yunchaokete
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 18/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 17/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 15/07 | Evan Zhu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 09/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Hugo Dellien Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Bu Yunchaokete?
Our model gives 70% to Bu Yunchaokete, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.