Tennis · ATP Cincinnati · 11/08, 18:00
Prediction: Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide
Team pages: Luca Van Assche · Gustavo Heide
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Van Assche
Gustavo Heide
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Van Assche
5-5 (W-L)
Gustavo Heide
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Van Assche 1601 · Gustavo Heide 1530
| Luca Van Assche | Gustavo Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Van Assche (rating 1601 vs 1530).
- Note: Luca Van Assche makes many double faults (4.7/match).
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Luca Van Assche | Gustavo Heide | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.9-11.9 | 10.3-10.6 |
| Aces | 2.5 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 51.6% | 25.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.2
Over 22.5: 58% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 42% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Van Assche
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 26/07 | Alexander Blockx ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 23/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 15/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Dusan Lajovic ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 20/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/06 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Kilian Feldbausch ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 07/07 | David Poljak Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo Heide?
Our model gives 65% to Luca Van Assche, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.