Tennis · Challenger Astana · 11/08, 07:00
Prediction: Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair
Team pages: Takuya Kumasaka · Colin Sinclair
Prediction summary
Winner
Takuya Kumasaka
Colin Sinclair
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Takuya Kumasaka
5-5 (W-L)
Colin Sinclair
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Takuya Kumasaka 1469 · Colin Sinclair 1539
| Takuya Kumasaka | Colin Sinclair | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colin Sinclair (rating 1469 vs 1539).
- Colin Sinclair dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 41.8% break avg.
- Colin Sinclair is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Colin Sinclair makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Takuya Kumasaka | Colin Sinclair | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-10.4 | 13.1-11.2 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 65% | 75.2% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 41.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 48% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Takuya Kumasaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Alexander Donski Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Florent Bax Challenger Samsun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 20/07 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/07 | Asier Meneses Perny Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/07 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Robin Bertrand M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Alvaro Jimenez M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Colin Sinclair
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Damir Zhalgasbay Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 09/08 | Alibek Kachmazov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Maxwell McKennon Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Samsun · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 25/07 | Aly Geldyev Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/07 | Ganuka Fernando Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/07 | Mossa Alharrasi Davis Cup |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Matt Hulme M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Takuya Kumasaka vs Colin Sinclair?
Our model gives 54% to Colin Sinclair, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.