Tennis · Challenger Brownsburg · 11/08, 16:00
Prediction: Joel Schwaerzler vs Andy Andrade
Team pages: Joel Schwaerzler · Andy Andrade
Prediction summary
Winner
Joel Schwaerzler
Andy Andrade
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Joel Schwaerzler
6-4 (W-L)
Andy Andrade
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Joel Schwaerzler
1–0
Andy Andrade
(1 last)
- 13 Jan2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joel Schwaerzler 1566 · Andy Andrade 1434
| Joel Schwaerzler | Andy Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joel Schwaerzler (rating 1566 vs 1434).
- Joel Schwaerzler is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Joel Schwaerzler 1–0 Andy Andrade (1).
- Note: Andy Andrade makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Joel Schwaerzler | Andy Andrade | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (5) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.6-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.5 | 9.9-12.7 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 73.6% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 32.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
H2H · Joel Schwaerzler 1 – 0 Andy Andrade (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Joel Schwaerzler 1–0 Andy Andrade
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/25 Challenger Buenos Aires | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joel Schwaerzler
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/08 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 07/08 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 04/08 | Jiri Cizek Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Liberec · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/07 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Andy Andrade
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Alexei Popyrin Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Colton Smith Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Ammar Elamin Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 03/06 | Timo Legout Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Jan Choinski French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Elmer Moller Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joel Schwaerzler vs Andy Andrade?
Our model gives 65% to Joel Schwaerzler, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.