Tennis · Challenger Astana · 10/08, 07:00
Prediction: Egor Agafonov vs Alec Deckers
Team pages: Egor Agafonov · Alec Deckers
Prediction summary
Winner
Egor Agafonov
Alec Deckers
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Egor Agafonov
3-7 (W-L)
Alec Deckers
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Egor Agafonov 1451 · Alec Deckers 1532
| Egor Agafonov | Alec Deckers | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alec Deckers (rating 1451 vs 1532).
- Alec Deckers dominates on serve: 7 aces and 43.1% break avg.
- Alec Deckers is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Egor Agafonov makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Egor Agafonov | Alec Deckers | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-11.1 | 12.9-10.9 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 7 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 26.9% | 43.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Egor Agafonov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Martin Borisiouk M15 Astana |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Kacper Knitter M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 28/05 | Ivan Iutkin M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Dmitrii Burtsev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/03 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 17/03 | Karlis Ozolins M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/03 | Maxim Zhukov M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/03 | Xing Dao Chen M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 23/02 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Pune · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/02 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Pune · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Alec Deckers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Danial Rakhmatullayev Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Kerem Yilmaz Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 02/08 | Samim Filiz Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Charlie Robertson M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/07 | Andreas Timini M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Udit Kamboj M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Devin Badenhorst M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Kriish Tyagi M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Charlie Robertson M15 Hillcrest · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Egor Agafonov vs Alec Deckers?
Our model gives 67% to Alec Deckers, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.