Tennis · Challenger Astana · 11/08, 07:00
Prediction: Koki Matsuda vs Hayato Matsuoka
Team pages: Koki Matsuda · Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Koki Matsuda
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Koki Matsuda
8-2 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Koki Matsuda 1540 · Hayato Matsuoka 1514
| Koki Matsuda | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Koki Matsuda | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.2 | 10.4-10 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.6% | 67% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 32% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.7
Over 21.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 45% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Koki Matsuda
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Gijs Brouwer Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 06/08 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 04/08 | Kerem Yilmaz Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 03/08 | Daniil Ostapenkov Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/08 | Cem Ilkel Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Gabriel Debru Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 29/07 | Colin Sinclair Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Karan Singh Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/07 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 12/07 | Omar Jasika M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Koki Matsuda vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 54% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.