Tennis · ATP Montreal · 09/08, 18:00
Prediction: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton
Team pages: Joao Fonseca · Ben Shelton
Prediction summary
Winner
Joao Fonseca
Ben Shelton
Estimated games
29.2
Recent form · 10 last
Joao Fonseca
5-5 (W-L)
Ben Shelton
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Joao Fonseca
0–1
Ben Shelton
(1 last)
- 17 Apr1-2 12-15L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Joao Fonseca 1530 · Ben Shelton 1548
| Joao Fonseca | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Joao Fonseca dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 44.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Joao Fonseca 0–1 Ben Shelton (1).
Statistics
| Joao Fonseca | Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (4) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.3 | 1.8-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.9-15.5 | 16.2-14.3 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 9.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 67.5% | 78.3% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 38% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.2
H2H · Joao Fonseca 0 – 1 Ben Shelton (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Joao Fonseca 0–1 Ben Shelton
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 ATP Munich | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Joao Fonseca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Casper Ruud ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Casper Ruud French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 29/05 | Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 28-25 | W |
| 27/05 | Dino Prizmic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-18 | W |
Ben Shelton
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Ugo Humbert ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 28/07 | Martin Damm ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Otto Virtanen Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-28 | L |
| 19/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 18/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton?
Our model gives 53% to Ben Shelton, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.