Tennis · WTA Toronto · 08/08, 19:00
Prediction: Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Naomi Osaka
Team pages: Leylah Annie Fernandez · Naomi Osaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Naomi Osaka
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Leylah Annie Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Leylah Annie Fernandez
1–1
Naomi Osaka
(2 last)
- 07 Oct1-2 14-17L
- 04 Sept2-1 18-17W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1467 · Naomi Osaka 1590
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1467 vs 1590).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 48% break avg.
- Naomi Osaka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Leylah Annie Fernandez | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 20% (5) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-10.7 | 11.8-7.6 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 77% |
| Break % | 46.7% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.8
Over 20.5: 62% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 38% · 1.83
H2H · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1 – 1 Naomi Osaka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1–1 Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/09/21 US Open Women | 2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Magda Linette WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Alycia Parks French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Elise Mertens WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 69% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.