Tennis · WTA Toronto · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Ludmilla Samsonova vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Ludmilla Samsonova · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Ludmilla Samsonova
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ludmilla Samsonova
8-2 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ludmilla Samsonova
4–2
Elena Rybakina
(6 last)
- 24 May1-2 9-18L
- 10 Feb1-2 8-16L
- 07 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 13 Aug2-1 13-9W
- 21 Sept2-0 12-6W
- 10 Aug2-1 17-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ludmilla Samsonova 1537 · Elena Rybakina 1514
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Elena Rybakina dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 42.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Ludmilla Samsonova 4–2 Elena Rybakina (6).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (6.2/match).
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11.1 | 13-11 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.8% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 40.4% | 42.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.8
Over 19.5: 80% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 20% · 1.90
H2H · Ludmilla Samsonova 4 – 2 Elena Rybakina (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludmilla Samsonova 4–2 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/25 WTA Strasbourg | 1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 10/02/24 WTA Abu Dhabi | 1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 07/10/23 WTA Beijing | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08/23 WTA Montreal | 2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/09/22 WTA Tokyo | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/08/21 WTA Montreal | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Maya Joint WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Xinyu Wang WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/07 | Madison Keys WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Diana Shnaider Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Polina Kudermetova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Yulia Starodubtsewa French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Veronika Erjavec French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludmilla Samsonova vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 61% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.