Tennis · WTA Toronto · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Iga Swiatek
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Iga Swiatek
Estimated games
21.3Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
7-3 (W-L)
Iga Swiatek
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
1–3
Iga Swiatek
(4 last)
- 31 May2-0 13-6W
- 16 Aug0-2 4-12L
- 16 Mar0-2 3-12L
- 07 Jun0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1582 · Iga Swiatek 1535
| Marta Kostyuk | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1582 vs 1535).
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 1–3 Iga Swiatek (4).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4/match).
- Note: Iga Swiatek makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-8.3 | 11.4-7.7 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 4 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 66.6% |
| Break % | 54.4% | 55.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +0.8
Over 20.5: 55% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 45% · 1.83
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 1 – 3 Iga Swiatek (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 1–3 Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 French Open Women | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08/24 WTA Cincinnati | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/03/24 WTA Indian Wells | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/06/21 French Open Women | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Madison Keys WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Katherine Sebov WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Karolina Pliskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Taylor Townsend Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 31/05 | Marta Kostyuk French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Magda Linette French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Sara Bejlek French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/05 | Emerson Jones French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek?
Our model gives 52% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.