Tennis · WTA Toronto · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Diana Shnaider
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Diana Shnaider
Estimated games
22.4Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
7-3 (W-L)
Diana Shnaider
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
4–0
Diana Shnaider
(4 last)
- 01 Aug2-0 13-9W
- 03 Apr2-1 15-11W
- 02 Sept2-0 12-6W
- 11 Aug2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1590 · Diana Shnaider 1537
| Jessica Pegula | Diana Shnaider | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1590 vs 1537).
- Jessica Pegula is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 4–0 Diana Shnaider (4).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Diana Shnaider | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-9.4 | 11.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.9% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 59.2% | 55.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.9
Over 20.5: 63% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 37% · 1.83
H2H · Jessica Pegula 4 – 0 Diana Shnaider (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 4–0 Diana Shnaider
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 WTA Washington | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/04/26 WTA Charleston | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/09/24 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/08/24 WTA Toronto | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Magdalena Frech WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 05/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Diana Shnaider
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Rebecca Sramkova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Anastasia Potapova WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 02/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Eva Lys Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Clara Tauson WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaider?
Our model gives 62% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.