Tennis · WTA Toronto · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
5–4
Ekaterina Alexandrova
(9 last)
- 17 Jun2-0 12-8W
- 11 Feb1-2 15-16L
- 31 Aug2-1 14-9W
- 10 Jul2-0 12-4W
- 12 Jun0-2 5-13L
- 22 Oct0-2 7-12L
- 01 Feb2-0 12-7W
- 02 Jan2-0 12-6W
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1560 · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1526
| Aryna Sabalenka | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 5–4 Ekaterina Alexandrova (9).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.4 | 12.1-10.4 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 67.9% |
| Break % | 49.7% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.5
Over 19.5: 73% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 27% · 1.90
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 5 – 4 Ekaterina Alexandrova (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 5–4 Ekaterina Alexandrova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 WTA Berlin | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/02/25 WTA Doha | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 31/08/24 US Open Women | 2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 10/07/23 Wimbledon Women | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06/22 WTA Hertogenbosch | 0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 22/10/21 WTA Moscow | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/02/19 WTA St. Petersburg | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/01/19 WTA Shenzhen | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Lanlana Tararudee Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Panna Udvardy Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ann Li WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Our model gives 67% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.