Tennis · WTA Toronto · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Maya Joint vs Ludmilla Samsonova
Team pages: Maya Joint · Ludmilla Samsonova
Prediction summary
Winner
Maya Joint
Ludmilla Samsonova
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maya Joint
7-3 (W-L)
Ludmilla Samsonova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maya Joint
0–1
Ludmilla Samsonova
(1 last)
- 01 Jul0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maya Joint 1537 · Ludmilla Samsonova 1552
| Maya Joint | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Maya Joint 0–1 Ludmilla Samsonova (1).
- Note: Maya Joint makes many double faults (5/match).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Maya Joint | Ludmilla Samsonova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 71% (7) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.1 | 12.9-10.5 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 5 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 57.6% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 50.5% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.3
Over 20.5: 66% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 34% · 1.83
H2H · Maya Joint 0 – 1 Ludmilla Samsonova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maya Joint 0–1 Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/25 Wimbledon Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maya Joint
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Yulia Starodubtsewa WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Ana Grubor WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 30/07 | Kristina Liutova WTA Memphis · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 27/07 | Whitney Osuigwe WTA Memphis · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Tereza Valentova WTA Prague · Hard |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Laura Samsonova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 30/06 | Serena Williams Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Emiliana Arango WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 03/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Xinyu Wang WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/07 | Madison Keys WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Diana Shnaider Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Polina Kudermetova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maya Joint vs Ludmilla Samsonova?
Our model gives 60% to Ludmilla Samsonova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.