Tennis · WTA Toronto · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka
Team pages: Elise Mertens · Naomi Osaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Elise Mertens
Naomi Osaka
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elise Mertens
4-6 (W-L)
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elise Mertens
3–5
Naomi Osaka
(8 last)
- 23 Jun0-2 6-12L
- 09 Aug2-0 12-7W
- 11 Jun0-2 6-12L
- 11 Mar2-0 13-9W
- 29 Mar0-2 6-12L
- 28 Aug0-2 8-13L
- 21 Sept0-2 5-12L
- 25 Sept2-1 13-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elise Mertens 1551 · Naomi Osaka 1594
| Elise Mertens | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1551 vs 1594).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 7.6 aces and 50.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Elise Mertens 3–5 Naomi Osaka (8).
- Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Elise Mertens | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (9) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-9.6 | 11.8-7.7 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 7.6 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 77.9% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.4
Over 20.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 40% · 1.83
H2H · Elise Mertens 3 – 5 Naomi Osaka (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elise Mertens 3–5 Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/26 WTA Bad Homburg | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/08/24 WTA Toronto | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/06/24 WTA Hertogenbosch | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/03/24 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/03/21 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/08/20 WTA New York | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/09/19 WTA Osaka | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/09/17 WTA Wuhan | 2-1 | 13-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elise Mertens
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Anna Bondar WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 30/06 | Laura Siegemund Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Panna Udvardy WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elise Mertens vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 61% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.