Tennis · WTA Toronto · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Team pages: Mirra Andreeva · Leylah Annie Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Mirra Andreeva
Leylah Annie Fernandez
Estimated games
21.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mirra Andreeva
8-2 (W-L)
Leylah Annie Fernandez
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mirra Andreeva
2–1
Leylah Annie Fernandez
(3 last)
- 28 Apr2-0 13-9W
- 12 Oct1-2 10-15L
- 26 Apr2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mirra Andreeva 1588 · Leylah Annie Fernandez 1446
| Mirra Andreeva | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirra Andreeva (rating 1588 vs 1446).
- Mirra Andreeva is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mirra Andreeva 2–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (3).
- Note: Leylah Annie Fernandez makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Mirra Andreeva | Leylah Annie Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 0.7-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-7.1 | 10.7-11.4 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 5.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 52.2% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 53% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 47% · 1.83
H2H · Mirra Andreeva 2 – 1 Leylah Annie Fernandez (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirra Andreeva 2–1 Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/10/23 WTA Hong Kong | 1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 26/04/23 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mirra Andreeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Magda Linette Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Marta Kostyuk French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Sorana Cirstea French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/05 | Jil Teichmann French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Marie Bouzkova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Marina Bassols Ribera French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
Leylah Annie Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Renata Zarazua WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/07 | Magda Linette WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Alycia Parks French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Victoria Mboko WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Annie Fernandez?
Our model gives 70% to Mirra Andreeva, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.