Tennis · WTA Toronto · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Maria Sakkari vs Coco Gauff
Team pages: Maria Sakkari · Coco Gauff
Prediction summary
Winner
Maria Sakkari
Coco Gauff
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maria Sakkari
8-2 (W-L)
Coco Gauff
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maria Sakkari
1–5
Coco Gauff
(6 last)
- 07 Jan0-2 5-12L
- 22 Mar0-2 6-12L
- 10 Mar0-2 8-13L
- 16 Mar2-1 18-13W
- 06 Oct0-2 6-12L
- 06 Aug0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maria Sakkari 1538 · Coco Gauff 1573
| Maria Sakkari | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Maria Sakkari 1–5 Coco Gauff (6).
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Maria Sakkari | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (4) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.7-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9 | 14.4-11.1 |
| Aces | 4 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 59.8% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +3.3
Over 19.5: 72% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 28% · 1.90
H2H · Maria Sakkari 1 – 5 Coco Gauff (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maria Sakkari 1–5 Coco Gauff
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/26 United Cup Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/03/25 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/03/25 WTA Indian Wells | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/03/24 WTA Indian Wells | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 06/10/23 WTA Beijing | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08/23 WTA Washington | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Alina Korneeva WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Alycia Parks WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Harriet Dart WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 30/06 | Clara Tauson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Kayla Day WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Jessica Pegula Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Claire Liu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Solana Sierra Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Tamara Korpatsch Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Paula Badosa WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Anastasia Potapova French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 28/05 | Mayar Sherif French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maria Sakkari vs Coco Gauff?
Our model gives 66% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.