Tennis · ATP Montreal · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul
Team pages: Learner Tien · Tommy Paul
Prediction summary
Winner
Learner Tien
Tommy Paul
Estimated games
28.5
Recent form · 10 last
Learner Tien
7-3 (W-L)
Tommy Paul
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Learner Tien
0–1
Tommy Paul
(1 last)
- 22 Feb1-2 13-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Learner Tien 1507 · Tommy Paul 1553
| Learner Tien | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tommy Paul (rating 1507 vs 1553).
- Tommy Paul dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 52.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Learner Tien 0–1 Tommy Paul (1).
- Note: Learner Tien makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Learner Tien | Tommy Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 50% (4) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.6 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.5-15.7 | 14.5-11.5 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 8.6 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 76.8% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 52.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.5
H2H · Learner Tien 0 – 1 Tommy Paul (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Learner Tien 0–1 Tommy Paul
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 ATP Delray Beach | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Learner Tien
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Gael Monfils ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 18-20 | L |
| 15/06 | Max Schoenhaus ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 28/05 | Facundo Diaz Acosta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 27-26 | W |
| 26/05 | Cristian Garin French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-8 | W |
| 23/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Tommy Paul
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Valentin Royer ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/07 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-24 | L |
| 01/07 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Alexandre Muller Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-4 | W |
| 21/06 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 20/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Learner Tien vs Tommy Paul?
Our model gives 60% to Tommy Paul, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.