Tennis · ATP Montreal · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Team pages: Alexei Popyrin · Thiago Agustin Tirante
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexei Popyrin
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Estimated games
25.8
Recent form · 10 last
Alexei Popyrin
5-5 (W-L)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexei Popyrin 1480 · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1566
| Alexei Popyrin | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Agustin Tirante (rating 1480 vs 1566).
- Thiago Agustin Tirante dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 49.6% break avg.
- Thiago Agustin Tirante is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Thiago Agustin Tirante makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Alexei Popyrin | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.6 | 1.7-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-14 | 15.6-13.9 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 72.7% | 76.3% |
| Break % | 26.1% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexei Popyrin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
| 21/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Taylor Fritz ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Clement Tabur ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-23 | L |
| 27/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 24/05 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante?
Our model gives 54% to Thiago Agustin Tirante, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.