Tennis · ATP Montreal · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alex Michelsen
Team pages: Daniel Merida Aguilar · Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Merida Aguilar
8-2 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Merida Aguilar
0–1
Alex Michelsen
(1 last)
- 06 Mar0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1559 · Alex Michelsen 1623
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1559 vs 1623).
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6 aces and 47% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Daniel Merida Aguilar 0–1 Alex Michelsen (1).
Statistics
| Daniel Merida Aguilar | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (2) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.9 | 1.9-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-10.3 | 14-9.9 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 75.4% |
| Break % | 42.2% | 47% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 1 Alex Michelsen (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Merida Aguilar 0–1 Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Ugo Humbert ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 63% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.