Tennis · ATP Montreal · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi
Team pages: Tallon Griekspoor · Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Tallon Griekspoor
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
30.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tallon Griekspoor
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tallon Griekspoor
0–1
Matteo Arnaldi
(1 last)
- 26 May1-3 19-25L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tallon Griekspoor 1465 · Matteo Arnaldi 1531
| Tallon Griekspoor | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Arnaldi (rating 1465 vs 1531).
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 42.3% break avg.
- Matteo Arnaldi is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Tallon Griekspoor 0–1 Matteo Arnaldi (1).
- Note: Matteo Arnaldi makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Tallon Griekspoor | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 25% (4) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.6 | 1.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-14.9 | 18.5-18.3 |
| Aces | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 27.7% | 42.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
30.5
H2H · Tallon Griekspoor 0 – 1 Matteo Arnaldi (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tallon Griekspoor 0–1 Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/26 French Open | 1-3 | 19-25 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tallon Griekspoor
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Alexander Zverev ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 27/07 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 30/06 | James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 16/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 26/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 16/05 | Raphael Collignon Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Alex Molcan Challenger Bordeaux · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
| 30/05 | Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 28/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 51% to Tallon Griekspoor, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.