Tennis · ATP Montreal · 07/08, 01:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Rafael Jodar
1–0
Lorenzo Musetti
(1 last)
- 01 Aug2-1 13-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1565 · Lorenzo Musetti 1535
| Rafael Jodar | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Rafael Jodar 1–0 Lorenzo Musetti (1).
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.3 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.3-13.5 | 10.9-10.7 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 24.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
H2H · Rafael Jodar 1 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Jodar 1–0 Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 ATP Washington | 2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Corentin Moutet ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Arthur Fils ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-20 | L |
| 02/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-22 | W |
| 29/06 | Felix Gill Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
Lorenzo Musetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/04 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/04 | Arthur Fils ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 53% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.