Tennis · ATP Montreal · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Cameron Norrie vs Alex De Minaur
Team pages: Cameron Norrie · Alex De Minaur
Prediction summary
Winner
Cameron Norrie
Alex De Minaur
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Cameron Norrie
6-4 (W-L)
Alex De Minaur
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Cameron Norrie
3–3
Alex De Minaur
(6 last)
- 07 Apr1-2 14-15L
- 09 Mar2-0 12-8W
- 29 Dec2-1 15-16W
- 08 Aug0-2 9-13L
- 29 Dec2-0 12-6W
- 22 Apr1-2 11-17L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cameron Norrie 1553 · Alex De Minaur 1539
| Cameron Norrie | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Cameron Norrie | Alex De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-11.6 | 14.4-10.6 |
| Aces | 3.5 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.4% | 73% |
| Break % | 35% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
H2H · Cameron Norrie 3 – 3 Alex De Minaur (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cameron Norrie 3–3 Alex De Minaur
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 ATP Monte Carlo | 1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 09/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/12/23 United Cup | 2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 08/08/23 ATP Toronto | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/12/22 United Cup | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/04/22 ATP Barcelona | 1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cameron Norrie
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Ignacio Buse ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/08 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/07 | James Duckworth ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-31 | L |
| 16/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Alex De Minaur
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | James Duckworth ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Cruz Hewitt ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-20 | L |
| 04/07 | Zachary Svajda Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Adrian Mannarino Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-7 | W |
| 19/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cameron Norrie vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model gives 58% to Alex De Minaur, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.