Tennis · ATP Montreal · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca
Team pages: Casper Ruud · Joao Fonseca
Prediction summary
Winner
Casper Ruud
Joao Fonseca
Estimated games
29.3
Recent form · 10 last
Casper Ruud
5-5 (W-L)
Joao Fonseca
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Casper Ruud
0–1
Joao Fonseca
(1 last)
- 31 May1-3 20-25L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Casper Ruud 1528 · Joao Fonseca 1553
| Casper Ruud | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 47% | 53% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 6.5 aces and 49.4% break avg.
- Joao Fonseca dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 43% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Casper Ruud 0–1 Joao Fonseca (1).
- Note: Casper Ruud makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Casper Ruud | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.5 | 2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.6-15.6 | 17.5-15.8 |
| Aces | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.3
H2H · Casper Ruud 0 – 1 Joao Fonseca (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casper Ruud 0–1 Joao Fonseca
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 French Open | 1-3 | 20-25 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 27/05 | Hamad Medjedovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 25/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 22/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Joao Fonseca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Casper Ruud French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 29/05 | Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 28-25 | W |
| 27/05 | Dino Prizmic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-18 | W |
| 24/05 | Luka Pavlovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca?
Our model gives 53% to Joao Fonseca, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.