Tennis · WTA Toronto · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Ann Li vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Ann Li · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Ann Li
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
24.2Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ann Li
2-8 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ann Li 1476 · Elena Rybakina 1501
| Ann Li | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Ann Li dominates on serve: 6 aces and 45.4% break avg.
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Ann Li | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 40% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.1 | 13.1-11.7 |
| Aces | 6 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 76.1% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 36.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +4.7
Over 19.5: 80% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 20% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ann Li
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Kayla Cross WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/07 | Magdalena Frech WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Alina Korneeva WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Maria Timofeeva WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/06 | Zeynep Sonmez Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 9-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Taylah Preston WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 16/06 | Kimberly Birrell WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 28/05 | Diane Parry French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Elena Rybakina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Yulia Starodubtsewa French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Veronika Erjavec French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ann Li vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 68% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.