Tennis · WTA Toronto · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Kamilla Rakhimova
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Kamilla Rakhimova
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
7-3 (W-L)
Kamilla Rakhimova
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1588 · Kamilla Rakhimova 1476
| Jessica Pegula | Kamilla Rakhimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1588 vs 1476).
- Jessica Pegula is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Kamilla Rakhimova makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Kamilla Rakhimova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (5) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.7 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-9.8 | 11.8-11.7 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 5.2 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 62.8% |
| Break % | 56.7% | 56.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +5.2
Over 18.5: 82% · 2.00
Under 18.5: 18% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Magdalena Frech WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 05/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Darja Vidmanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Kamilla Rakhimova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Venus Williams WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Heather Watson WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 02/07 | Maria Sakkari Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Anhelina Kalinina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/06 | Oksana Selekhmeteva WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Emma Raducanu WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Harriet Dart WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 07/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Ekaterine Gorgodze WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Karolina Muchova French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Kamilla Rakhimova?
Our model gives 77% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.