Tennis · WTA Toronto · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Madison Keys
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Madison Keys
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
7-3 (W-L)
Madison Keys
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
0–2
Madison Keys
(2 last)
- 05 Jul0-2 7-12L
- 08 Jul0-2 5-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1585 · Madison Keys 1584
| Marta Kostyuk | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 0–2 Madison Keys (2).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-8.5 | 13-8.3 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 78.8% |
| Break % | 54.4% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.6
Over 21.5: 54% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 46% · 1.80
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 0 – 2 Madison Keys (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 0–2 Madison Keys
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/24 Wimbledon Women | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07/23 Wimbledon Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Katherine Sebov WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Elina Svitolina French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Iga Swiatek French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Madison Keys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 06/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Katie Swan Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 23/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys?
Our model gives 54% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.