Tennis · ATP Montreal · 05/08, 20:00

Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor

Team pages: Alexander Zverev · Tallon Griekspoor

Prediction summary

Winner

80% 20%

Alexander Zverev Tallon Griekspoor

Estimated games

28.4

Recent form · 10 last

Alexander Zverev 10-0 (W-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Tallon Griekspoor 5-5 (W-L)

WWLWWLLLLW

Head-to-head

Alexander Zverev 8–2 Tallon Griekspoor (10 last)

04 Jan2-0 13-5W
18 Apr2-1 19-17W
07 Mar1-2 18-18L
30 Oct2-0 13-9W
08 Oct2-1 16-18W
01 Jun3-2 26-24W
11 Mar2-0 13-9W
08 Aug2-0 13-10W

Showing the 8 with a final score we have.

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alexander Zverev 1616 · Tallon Griekspoor 1447

	Alexander Zverev	Tallon Griekspoor
Our model	73%	27%
Market	86%	14%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Zverev (rating 1616 vs 1447).
Alexander Zverev is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Head-to-head: Alexander Zverev 8–2 Tallon Griekspoor (10).

Statistics

	Alexander Zverev	Tallon Griekspoor
Win %	80%	40%
Win % · Grass	80% (10)	25% (4)
Sets (G-P)	2.4-0.7	1.2-1.5
Games (G-P)	18.7-15.3	14-14.3
Aces	13.8	9.4
Double faults	2.5	3.6
1st serve %	81.1%	70%
Break %	37.3%	30%

Estimated total games (ours) 28.4

H2H · Alexander Zverev 8 – 2 Tallon Griekspoor (10)

Odds Bet365

11.10

27.00

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.10▼	Bet365 1.10
2	6.50 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.2%

Time*	1	2
09:29 +6’	1.11	6.50
10:23 +12’	1.10▼	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Zverev 8–2 Tallon Griekspoor

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
04/01/26 United Cup	2-0	13-5	W
18/04/25 ATP Munich	2-1	19-17	W
07/03/25 ATP Indian Wells	1-2	18-18	L
30/10/24 ATP Paris	2-0	13-9	W
08/10/24 ATP Shanghai	2-1	16-18	W
01/06/24 French Open	3-2	26-24	W
11/03/24 ATP Indian Wells	2-0	13-9	W
08/08/23 ATP Toronto	2-0	13-10	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alexander Zverev

WWWWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
12/07	Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass	1-3	20-25	L
10/07	Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass	3-0	19-12	W
08/07	Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass	3-0	18-10	W
07/07	Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass	3-1	23-21	W
04/07	Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass	3-0	19-12	W
02/07	Valentin Royer Wimbledon · Grass	3-0	19-10	W
30/06	Alexander Blockx Wimbledon · Grass	3-1	26-23	W
20/06	Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass	1-2	16-19	L
19/06	Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass	2-0	14-12	W
18/06	Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass	2-0	13-9	W

Tallon Griekspoor

LLLLW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
04/08	Lorenzo Sonego ATP Montreal · Hard	2-0	14-11	W
27/07	Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard	1-2	16-17	L
30/06	James Duckworth Wimbledon · Grass	1-3	19-23	L
16/06	Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass	1-2	14-15	L
11/06	Zhizhen Zhang ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass	0-2	10-13	L
10/06	Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass	2-1	18-13	W
26/05	Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay	1-3	19-25	L
16/05	Raphael Collignon Challenger Bordeaux · Clay	0-2	6-13	L
15/05	Alex Molcan Challenger Bordeaux · Clay	2-0	12-6	W
14/05	Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Bordeaux · Clay	2-0	12-7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor?

Our model gives 80% to Alexander Zverev, using surface Elo on grass.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.