Tennis · ATP Montreal · 05/08, 21:30
Prediction: Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi
Team pages: Fabian Marozsan · Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Fabian Marozsan
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
28.9
Recent form · 10 last
Fabian Marozsan
6-4 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Fabian Marozsan
0–3
Matteo Arnaldi
(3 last)
- 21 May0-2 9-13L
- 12 Aug0-2 6-12L
- 14 Apr0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fabian Marozsan 1525 · Matteo Arnaldi 1520
| Fabian Marozsan | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 55% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Fabian Marozsan 0–3 Matteo Arnaldi (3).
Statistics
| Fabian Marozsan | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 56% (9) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-12.2 | 19.5-18.7 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 8.6 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 29.2% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.9
H2H · Fabian Marozsan 0 – 3 Matteo Arnaldi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fabian Marozsan 0–3 Matteo Arnaldi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/25 ATP Geneva | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/08/22 Challenger San Marino | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/04/21 M15 Antalya | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fabian Marozsan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 6-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 26/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Alex Molcan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 18/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Gauthier Onclin ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 15/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
| 30/05 | Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 28/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 26/05 | Tallon Griekspoor French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-19 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fabian Marozsan vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 53% to Fabian Marozsan, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.