Tennis · WTA Toronto · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Shuai Zhang
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Shuai Zhang
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 17.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
7-3 (W-L)
Shuai Zhang
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
4–1
Shuai Zhang
(5 last)
- 19 Aug2-0 13-10W
- 11 May2-0 12-2W
- 20 Apr2-0 12-4W
- 10 Jan2-0 13-10W
- 10 Nov0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1558 · Shuai Zhang 1494
| Aryna Sabalenka | Shuai Zhang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1558 vs 1494).
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 51% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 4–1 Shuai Zhang (5).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Shuai Zhang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-10.5 | 9.6-9.7 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 65.7% |
| Break % | 51% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +4.5
Over 17.5: 78% · 1.83
Under 17.5: 22% · 1.83
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 4 – 1 Shuai Zhang (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 4–1 Shuai Zhang
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/22 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/05/22 WTA Rome | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/04/21 WTA Stuttgart | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/01/18 WTA Hobart | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/11/16 ITF Women Tokyo | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Naomi Osaka French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Shuai Zhang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Yulia Putintseva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/07 | Gabriela Knutson WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Bianca Andreescu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 20/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Karolina Muchova WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Milena Steinkamp WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Heather Watson WTA Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Shuai Zhang?
Our model gives 72% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.