Tennis · WTA Toronto · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Talia Gibson vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Team pages: Talia Gibson · Ekaterina Alexandrova
Prediction summary
Winner
Talia Gibson
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Estimated games
23Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Talia Gibson
4-6 (W-L)
Ekaterina Alexandrova
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Talia Gibson
1–0
Ekaterina Alexandrova
(1 last)
- 06 Mar2-0 13-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Talia Gibson 1459 · Ekaterina Alexandrova 1511
| Talia Gibson | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 40% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekaterina Alexandrova (rating 1459 vs 1511).
- Head-to-head: Talia Gibson 1–0 Ekaterina Alexandrova (1).
- Note: Talia Gibson makes many double faults (6.4/match).
- Note: Ekaterina Alexandrova makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Talia Gibson | Ekaterina Alexandrova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 29% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.7 | 11-10.5 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.2% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 35.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.5
Over 20.5: 67% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 33% · 1.90
H2H · Talia Gibson 1 – 0 Ekaterina Alexandrova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Talia Gibson 1–0 Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Talia Gibson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Tatjana Maria WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 07/06 | Alina Charaeva WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Yulia Putintseva French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Ekaterina Alexandrova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Maria Camila Osorio WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 01/07 | Lanlana Tararudee Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Panna Udvardy Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Mirra Andreeva WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/06 | Ann Li WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Aryna Sabalenka WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/05 | Maria Camila Osorio French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Talia Gibson vs Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Our model gives 59% to Ekaterina Alexandrova, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.