Tennis · ATP Montreal · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar
Team pages: Ugo Humbert · Daniel Merida Aguilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Ugo Humbert
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Estimated games
24.3
Recent form · 10 last
Ugo Humbert
8-2 (W-L)
Daniel Merida Aguilar
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ugo Humbert 1534 · Daniel Merida Aguilar 1544
| Ugo Humbert | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Ugo Humbert dominates on serve: 6 aces and 52.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Ugo Humbert | Daniel Merida Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 63% (8) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-11.8 | 12.3-11 |
| Aces | 6 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 52.4% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ugo Humbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Ben Shelton ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 28/07 | Andres Martin ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-26 | L |
| 28/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/06 | Jack Draper ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 20/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Liam Draxl ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Ziga Sesko ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 13/06 | Martin Damm ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilar?
Our model gives 60% to Ugo Humbert, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.