Tennis · ATP Montreal · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin
Team pages: Raphael Collignon · Alexei Popyrin
Prediction summary
Winner
Raphael Collignon
Alexei Popyrin
Estimated games
25.4
Recent form · 10 last
Raphael Collignon
2-8 (W-L)
Alexei Popyrin
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Raphael Collignon
1–0
Alexei Popyrin
(1 last)
- 16 Jun2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Raphael Collignon 1522 · Alexei Popyrin 1459
| Raphael Collignon | Alexei Popyrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Raphael Collignon (rating 1522 vs 1459).
- Head-to-head: Raphael Collignon 1–0 Alexei Popyrin (1).
- Note: Raphael Collignon makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Raphael Collignon | Alexei Popyrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.5 | 0.9-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-15.5 | 11.5-14.5 |
| Aces | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 76.9% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 30.3% | 22.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.4
H2H · Raphael Collignon 1 – 0 Alexei Popyrin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Raphael Collignon 1–0 Alexei Popyrin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/26 ATP Halle | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Raphael Collignon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 18/07 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 17/07 | Valentin Vacherot ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/07 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Alexei Popyrin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
| 21/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Taylor Fritz ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Clement Tabur ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 11/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin?
Our model gives 61% to Raphael Collignon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.