Tennis · ATP Montreal · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Jakub Mensik
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Jakub Mensik
Estimated games
28.1
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
7-3 (W-L)
Jakub Mensik
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1594 · Jakub Mensik 1521
| Jacob Fearnley | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1594 vs 1521).
- Jacob Fearnley is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6/match).
- Note: Jakub Mensik makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Jakub Mensik | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 2.1-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-10.6 | 20-19.3 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 13.4 |
| Double faults | 6 | 5.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 75.8% |
| Break % | 50.1% | 28.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/07 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jakub Mensik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 28/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Grigor Dimitrov Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-24 | L |
| 30/06 | Toby Samuel Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-25 | W |
| 16/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 19-19 | L |
| 05/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 02/06 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 31/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-24 | W |
| 29/05 | Alex De Minaur French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/05 | Mariano Navone French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 22-25 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik?
Our model gives 57% to Jakub Mensik, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.