Tennis · ATP Montreal · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca
Team pages: Stefanos Tsitsipas · Joao Fonseca
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Joao Fonseca
Estimated games
27.6
Recent form · 10 last
Stefanos Tsitsipas
8-2 (W-L)
Joao Fonseca
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefanos Tsitsipas
0–1
Joao Fonseca
(1 last)
- 14 Sept1-2 15-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefanos Tsitsipas 1575 · Joao Fonseca 1543
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Stefanos Tsitsipas 0–1 Joao Fonseca (1).
Statistics
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Joao Fonseca | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (5) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-11.9 | 17.6-16.3 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 80.9% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 31.6% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.6
H2H · Stefanos Tsitsipas 0 – 1 Joao Fonseca (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefanos Tsitsipas 0–1 Joao Fonseca
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/25 Davis Cup | 1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/08 | Keegan Rice ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/07 | Alex De Minaur ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 19/07 | Raphael Collignon ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Jerome Kym ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 14/07 | Ignacio Buse ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-7 | W |
Joao Fonseca
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Jesper De Jong Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Casper Ruud French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-20 | W |
| 29/05 | Novak Djokovic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 28-25 | W |
| 27/05 | Dino Prizmic French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 25-18 | W |
| 24/05 | Luka Pavlovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 09/05 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca?
Our model gives 51% to Joao Fonseca, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.