Tennis · ATP Montreal · 06/08, 17:00
Prediction: Zizou Bergs vs Sebastian Baez
Team pages: Zizou Bergs · Sebastian Baez
Prediction summary
Winner
Zizou Bergs
Sebastian Baez
Estimated games
27.1
Recent form · 10 last
Zizou Bergs
6-4 (W-L)
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Zizou Bergs
1–0
Sebastian Baez
(1 last)
- 17 Oct2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Zizou Bergs 1548 · Sebastian Baez 1546
| Zizou Bergs | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Zizou Bergs 1–0 Sebastian Baez (1).
- Note: Zizou Bergs makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Zizou Bergs | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.4 | 1.6-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 17.3-15 | 12.7-11.8 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.2% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 38.6% | 35.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.1
H2H · Zizou Bergs 1 – 0 Sebastian Baez (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Zizou Bergs 1–0 Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/24 ATP Antwerp | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Zizou Bergs
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 29-25 | L |
| 02/07 | Jaime Faria Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 30/06 | Ugo Humbert Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-22 | W |
| 28/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 26/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Jaume Munar ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 10/06 | James McCabe ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 29/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-26 | L |
| 07/06 | Alex Molcan Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Zizou Bergs vs Sebastian Baez?
Our model gives 56% to Zizou Bergs, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.