Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 17:00
Prediction: Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Daria Kasatkina · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Daria Kasatkina
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daria Kasatkina
2-8 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daria Kasatkina
2–3
Elena Rybakina
(5 last)
- 11 Feb0-2 5-12L
- 12 Aug1-2 18-19L
- 02 Aug2-1 13-8W
- 10 Jan0-2 7-12L
- 20 Oct2-1 15-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daria Kasatkina 1487 · Elena Rybakina 1504
| Daria Kasatkina | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina 2–3 Elena Rybakina (5).
- Note: Daria Kasatkina makes many double faults (8.4/match).
Statistics
| Daria Kasatkina | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-12.6 | 12.6-10.5 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 8.4 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 59.4% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 58.3% | 40% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +5.3
Over 18.5: 82% · 1.72
Under 18.5: 18% · 2.00
H2H · Daria Kasatkina 2 – 3 Elena Rybakina (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daria Kasatkina 2–3 Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/24 WTA Abu Dhabi | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08/23 WTA Montreal | 1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 02/08/22 WTA San Jose | 2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/01/21 WTA Abu Dhabi | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/10/20 WTA Ostrava | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daria Kasatkina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Xinyu Wang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-17 | W |
| 28/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Alana Smith WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 25/07 | Mariam Bolkvadze WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Janice Tjen Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Mimi Xu Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 22/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Anna Blinkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Robin Montgomery WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Alexandra Eala WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Katie Boulter WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 27/05 | Yulia Starodubtsewa French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Veronika Erjavec French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/05 | Elina Svitolina WTA Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 11/05 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daria Kasatkina vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 69% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.