Tennis · ATP Montreal · 05/08, 17:00
Prediction: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet
Team pages: Rafael Jodar · Corentin Moutet
Prediction summary
Winner
Rafael Jodar
Corentin Moutet
Estimated games
27.6
Recent form · 10 last
Rafael Jodar
4-6 (W-L)
Corentin Moutet
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1574 · Corentin Moutet 1463
| Rafael Jodar | Corentin Moutet | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rafael Jodar (rating 1574 vs 1463).
- Rafael Jodar is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Corentin Moutet | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (3) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.4 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.3-14.2 | 13.4-13.9 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 30/07 | Kei Nishikori ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Arthur Fils ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 20-20 | L |
| 02/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-22 | W |
| 29/06 | Felix Gill Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 26-17 | W |
Corentin Moutet
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 29/07 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 22/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 09/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Arthur Rinderknech Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 05/06 | Stan Wawrinka Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Vit Kopriva French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 23-26 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet?
Our model gives 70% to Rafael Jodar, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.