Tennis · ATP Montreal · 05/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Francisco Cerundolo
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Francisco Cerundolo
Estimated games
24.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
8-2 (W-L)
Francisco Cerundolo
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
1–1
Francisco Cerundolo
(2 last)
- 21 Oct0-2 4-12L
- 17 Jun2-1 15-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1593 · Francisco Cerundolo 1538
| Alex Michelsen | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1593 vs 1538).
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 53.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-10.5 | 16.7-15.3 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.4% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 53.7% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
H2H · Alex Michelsen 1 – 1 Francisco Cerundolo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 1–1 Francisco Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/25 ATP Vienna | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/06/25 ATP Halle | 2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 31/07 | Taylor Fritz ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/07 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/07 | Mackenzie McDonald ATP Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 25/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Lloyd Harris Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 11/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Francisco Cerundolo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Arthur Gea ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 19/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 22-25 | L |
| 28/05 | Hugo Gaston French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Botic Van De Zandschulp French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo?
Our model gives 59% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.