Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 19:00
Prediction: Ludmilla Samsonova vs Barbora Krejcikova
Team pages: Ludmilla Samsonova · Barbora Krejcikova
Prediction summary
Winner
Ludmilla Samsonova
Barbora Krejcikova
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Ludmilla Samsonova
8-2 (W-L)
Barbora Krejcikova
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ludmilla Samsonova
3–1
Barbora Krejcikova
(4 last)
- 20 May2-1 18-13W
- 09 Feb2-0 13-9W
- 18 Apr0-2 2-12L
- 09 Feb2-0 14-11W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ludmilla Samsonova 1533 · Barbora Krejcikova 1627
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Barbora Krejcikova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 32% | 68% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barbora Krejcikova (rating 1533 vs 1627).
- Head-to-head: Ludmilla Samsonova 3–1 Barbora Krejcikova (4).
- Note: Ludmilla Samsonova makes many double faults (5.7/match).
- Note: Barbora Krejcikova makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Ludmilla Samsonova | Barbora Krejcikova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-11.2 | 13.2-9 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.2% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 57.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.5
Over 20.5: 60% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 40% · 1.83
H2H · Ludmilla Samsonova 3 – 1 Barbora Krejcikova (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludmilla Samsonova 3–1 Barbora Krejcikova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/24 WTA Strasbourg | 2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 09/02/24 WTA Abu Dhabi | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/04/23 WTA Stuttgart | 0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/02/23 WTA Abu Dhabi | 2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludmilla Samsonova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/07 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Xinyu Wang WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/07 | Madison Keys WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Diana Shnaider Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Polina Kudermetova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Elina Svitolina WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Katerina Siniakova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
Barbora Krejcikova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Lilli Tagger WTA Prague · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 24/07 | Dominika Salkova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/07 | Lucie Havlickova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Linda Fruhvirtova WTA Prague · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/07 | Maria Sakkari WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/07 | Clara Tauson WTA Athens · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 17/07 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Carole Monnet WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/07 | Viktoriya Tomova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludmilla Samsonova vs Barbora Krejcikova?
Our model gives 66% to Barbora Krejcikova, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.