Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 19:00
Prediction: Panna Udvardy vs Naomi Osaka
Team pages: Panna Udvardy · Naomi Osaka
Prediction summary
Winner
Panna Udvardy
Naomi Osaka
Estimated games
22.5Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Panna Udvardy
4-6 (W-L)
Naomi Osaka
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Panna Udvardy 1469 · Naomi Osaka 1605
| Panna Udvardy | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1469 vs 1605).
- Naomi Osaka dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 47.8% break avg.
- Naomi Osaka is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Panna Udvardy | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 20% (5) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.1 | 11.8-7.7 |
| Aces | 3.9 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 62.6% | 78.5% |
| Break % | 50.2% | 47.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4
Over 18.5: 76% · 1.83
Under 18.5: 24% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Panna Udvardy
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Elena Pridankina WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 14/07 | Leyre Romero Gormaz WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 29/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 13/06 | Katie Volynets WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 08/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Naomi Osaka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Daria Kasatkina Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Panna Udvardy vs Naomi Osaka?
Our model gives 79% to Naomi Osaka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.