Tennis · ATP Montreal · 05/08, 01:00
Prediction: Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic
Team pages: Frances Tiafoe · Marin Cilic
Prediction summary
Winner
Frances Tiafoe
Marin Cilic
Estimated games
27.4
Recent form · 10 last
Frances Tiafoe
7-3 (W-L)
Marin Cilic
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Frances Tiafoe
0–2
Marin Cilic
(2 last)
- 14 Sept0-3 10-19L
- 22 Sept0-2 12-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Frances Tiafoe 1576 · Marin Cilic 1488
| Frances Tiafoe | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frances Tiafoe (rating 1576 vs 1488).
- Frances Tiafoe dominates on serve: 7.2 aces and 42.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Frances Tiafoe 0–2 Marin Cilic (2).
Statistics
| Frances Tiafoe | Marin Cilic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 78% (9) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.2-13.3 | 11.8-13.7 |
| Aces | 7.2 | 5.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 78.3% | 72.9% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 35.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.4
H2H · Frances Tiafoe 0 – 2 Marin Cilic (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Frances Tiafoe 0–2 Marin Cilic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/18 Davis Cup | 0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 22/09/17 Laver Cup | 0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Frances Tiafoe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Terence Atmane ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 04/07 | Alexander Bublik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-28 | L |
| 02/07 | Jan Choinski Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-15 | W |
| 01/07 | Terence Atmane Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-17 | W |
| 21/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 20/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Marin Cilic
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 08/06 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 26/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 09/05 | Martin Landaluce ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Marcos Giron ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/04 | Zizou Bergs ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic?
Our model gives 62% to Frances Tiafoe, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.