Tennis · ATP Montreal · 05/08, 19:00
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti
Team pages: Nicolas Mejia · Lorenzo Musetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Lorenzo Musetti
Estimated games
24.1
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
7-3 (W-L)
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1585 · Lorenzo Musetti 1515
| Nicolas Mejia | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 16% | 84% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1585 vs 1515).
- Nicolas Mejia dominates on serve: 7 aces and 43.2% break avg.
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (5) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.4-12.8 | 10.8-10.6 |
| Aces | 7 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 71% | 68% |
| Break % | 43.2% | 28.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
Lorenzo Musetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 12/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/04 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/04 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/04 | Arthur Fils ATP Barcelona · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Corentin Moutet ATP Barcelona · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Our model gives 64% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.