Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 17:00

Prediction: Elise Mertens vs Anna Bondar

Team pages: Elise Mertens · Anna Bondar

Prediction summary

Winner

62% 38%

Elise Mertens Anna Bondar

Estimated games

23.5Bet365 line 20.5

Recent form · 10 last

Elise Mertens 4-6 (W-L)

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Anna Bondar 7-3 (W-L)

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Head-to-head

Elise Mertens 1–0 Anna Bondar (1 last)

09 Aug2-0 13-7W

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elise Mertens 1534 · Anna Bondar 1541

	Elise Mertens	Anna Bondar
Our model	49%	51%
Market	73%	27%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Head-to-head: Elise Mertens 1–0 Anna Bondar (1).
Note: Elise Mertens makes many double faults (5.4/match).

Statistics

	Elise Mertens	Anna Bondar
Win %	60%	60%
Win % · Grass	60% (10)	0% (2)
Sets (G-P)	1.2-1	1.5-1
Games (G-P)	10.1-9.4	13.7-13.2
Aces	4.7	2.5
Double faults	5.4	2.7
1st serve %	70.3%	60.4%
Break %	46.4%	43.9%

Estimated total games (ours) 23.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3

Over 20.5: 70% · 1.90 Under 20.5: 30% · 1.80

H2H · Elise Mertens 1 – 0 Anna Bondar (1)

Odds Bet365

11.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.83

2 (+4.5)1.83

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.5%

Time*	1	2
03:25 +16’	1.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elise Mertens 1–0 Anna Bondar

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
09/08/22 WTA Toronto	2-0	13-7	W

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elise Mertens

WWWWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
08/07	Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass	0-2	8-13	L
06/07	Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass	2-0	12-8	W
04/07	Elena Rybakina Wimbledon Women · Grass	2-0	13-7	W
02/07	Maria Timofeeva Wimbledon Women · Grass	2-1	14-9	W
30/06	Laura Siegemund Wimbledon Women · Grass	2-0	12-6	W
23/06	Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass	0-2	6-12	L
22/06	Alexandra Eala WTA Bad Homburg · Grass	2-0	12-6	W
17/06	Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass	0-2	5-12	L
15/06	Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Berlin · Grass	2-1	13-9	W
11/06	Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Hertogenbosch · Grass	0-2	6-12	L

Anna Bondar

WWWLW

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
03/08	Anhelina Kalinina WTA Toronto · Hard	2-0	13-9	W
26/07	Tamara Korpatsch WTA Hamburg · Clay	0-2	6-12	L
25/07	Elina Avanesyan WTA Hamburg · Clay	2-1	18-18	W
24/07	Alina Charaeva WTA Hamburg · Clay	2-0	13-7	W
22/07	Noma Noha Akugue WTA Hamburg · Clay	2-1	16-12	W
20/07	Moyuka Uchijima WTA Hamburg · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
15/07	Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay	1-2	18-20	L
13/07	Sara Sorribes Tormo WTA Iasi · Clay	2-0	13-9	W
29/06	Solana Sierra Wimbledon Women · Grass	1-2	15-18	L
15/06	Emma Navarro WTA Nottingham · Grass	1-2	12-18	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elise Mertens vs Anna Bondar?

Our model gives 62% to Elise Mertens, using surface Elo on grass.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.