Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech
Team pages: Jessica Pegula · Magdalena Frech
Prediction summary
Winner
Jessica Pegula
Magdalena Frech
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jessica Pegula
7-3 (W-L)
Magdalena Frech
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jessica Pegula
4–0
Magdalena Frech
(4 last)
- 30 Jul2-1 15-9W
- 17 Apr2-0 12-2W
- 28 Apr2-0 13-9W
- 27 Sept2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jessica Pegula 1577 · Magdalena Frech 1458
| Jessica Pegula | Magdalena Frech | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1577 vs 1458).
- Jessica Pegula is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jessica Pegula 4–0 Magdalena Frech (4).
Statistics
| Jessica Pegula | Magdalena Frech | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-10.3 | 10.6-12.5 |
| Aces | 5 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 52.5% | 40.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +4.8
Over 18.5: 80% · 1.83
Under 18.5: 20% · 1.83
H2H · Jessica Pegula 4 – 0 Magdalena Frech (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jessica Pegula 4–0 Magdalena Frech
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 WTA Washington | 2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 17/04/25 WTA Stuttgart | 2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/04/23 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/09/21 WTA Chicago | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Magdalena Frech WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 05/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 03/07 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sara Sorribes Tormo Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Darja Vidmanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/06 | Linda Noskova WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Magdalena Frech
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Jessica Pegula WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Ann Li WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Anna Kalinskaya Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Eva Lys WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 27/05 | Jil Teichmann French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jessica Pegula vs Magdalena Frech?
Our model gives 76% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.