Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 17:00
Prediction: Maja Chwalinska vs Talia Gibson
Team pages: Maja Chwalinska · Talia Gibson
Prediction summary
Winner
Maja Chwalinska
Talia Gibson
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Maja Chwalinska
8-2 (W-L)
Talia Gibson
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maja Chwalinska 1597 · Talia Gibson 1420
| Maja Chwalinska | Talia Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maja Chwalinska (rating 1597 vs 1420).
- Maja Chwalinska is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Talia Gibson makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Maja Chwalinska | Talia Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 0.7-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-8.2 | 10.3-13.4 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 59.1% | 40.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -0.5
Over 22.5: 47% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 53% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maja Chwalinska
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Mananchaya Sawangkaew Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Diana Shnaider French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/06 | Anna Kalinskaya French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/06 | Diane Parry French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Maria Sakkari French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 28/05 | Elise Mertens French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/05 | Qinwen Zheng French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/05 | Suzan Lamens French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 20/05 | Carole Monnet French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Talia Gibson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Tatjana Maria WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 07/06 | Alina Charaeva WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Elvina Kalieva WTA Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 25/05 | Yulia Putintseva French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 18/05 | Magdalena Frech WTA Strasbourg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maja Chwalinska vs Talia Gibson?
Our model gives 58% to Maja Chwalinska, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.