Tennis · WTA Toronto · 05/08, 16:00
Prediction: Mirra Andreeva vs Karolina Pliskova
Team pages: Mirra Andreeva · Karolina Pliskova
Prediction summary
Winner
Mirra Andreeva
Karolina Pliskova
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mirra Andreeva
8-2 (W-L)
Karolina Pliskova
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mirra Andreeva
1–0
Karolina Pliskova
(1 last)
- 15 Aug2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mirra Andreeva 1586 · Karolina Pliskova 1527
| Mirra Andreeva | Karolina Pliskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirra Andreeva (rating 1586 vs 1527).
- Head-to-head: Mirra Andreeva 1–0 Karolina Pliskova (1).
- Note: Karolina Pliskova makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Mirra Andreeva | Karolina Pliskova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-7.5 | 11-11.4 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 3 | 6.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 64.6% |
| Break % | 51.4% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +2.7
Over 19.5: 68% · 1.80
Under 19.5: 32% · 1.90
H2H · Mirra Andreeva 1 – 0 Karolina Pliskova (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirra Andreeva 1–0 Karolina Pliskova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/24 WTA Cincinnati | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mirra Andreeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Magda Linette Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Marta Kostyuk French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Sorana Cirstea French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/05 | Jil Teichmann French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Marie Bouzkova French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/05 | Marina Bassols Ribera French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 24/05 | Fiona Ferro French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Karolina Pliskova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Iga Swiatek Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Tereza Valentova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/06 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Caty McNally WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Sara Bejlek WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Donna Vekic WTA Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 08/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Queens · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 20/05 | Marina Bassols Ribera French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mirra Andreeva vs Karolina Pliskova?
Our model gives 67% to Mirra Andreeva, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.